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Ocean Models: The Unsung Heroes of Oceanography

Computer models of the ocean are used to tackle many different research questions in oceanography, especially where observations alone cannot unravel the complexities between the biological, chemical and physical interactions that occur below the surface. There is also one place that we absolutely cannot observe… the future! This is where models, in particular Earth System Models which capture the representations between land, atmosphere, ice and, of course, oceans, are a really important tool. They allow us to predict how the ocean might change in future, especially as climate change impacts many facets of the Earth system. Usually, these predictions are carried out until the end of the century (2100) under different climate change scenarios that describe our future society from ‘Sustainability’ with rapid emission reductions to ‘Fossil-fuelled development’ in which emissions continue to rise unchecked. The assessment of these scenarios are used to inform the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports.

One of the BIOPOLE project aims is to understand how future changes in the movement of nutrients out of the Polar regions may impact the global carbon cycle and fish abundance, as nutrients are critical for phytoplankton growth which are at the base of the marine food chain. One way we are addressing this aim is by using a subset of these Earth system model projections that were ran out past 2100 all the way to 2300 to understand the longer-term impacts. Assessing over this timescale is important as due to the slow nature of ocean circulation some consequences will not begin to appear until after 2100. Even under the ‘Sustainability’ low emissions scenario we see changes appearing after 2100 in global ocean phytoplankton production that may already be unavoidable due to the carbon emissions we have already emitted. We are keen to continue our analysis of these model projections to improve our understanding of the connectivity between the polar regions and the global ocean.  By understanding how the ocean responds under different climate scenarios we can assess the potential impacts to the ocean carbon cycle and future fish abundance, which may have wide ranging implications.

The author of the article  – Chelsey Baker (National Oceanography Centre)

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Meet the Team 

Andrew Yool

  • Please introduce yourself.

I’m a marine biogeochemistry modeller working within the Marine Systems Modelling team at the National Oceanography Centre (NOC) in Southampton.  

  • Tell us about your professional and academic career before becoming part of the BIOPOLE Community. 

Way back in the last century, I originally trained as a real biologist working across the botany and zoology groups at the University of Dundee. However, I’d also always enjoyed mathematics at school, so when I came to pick a doctorate, I chose a marine ecology modelling project at the University of Warwick – well-known for its proximity to the ocean! After completing that, I was lucky enough to get a position at NOC, working with the Great God of Plankton Modelling, Mike Fasham, on large-scale carbon cycle modelling. I’ve been here ever since, gradually moving from work using simpler models (GENIE) through ocean general circulation models (OCCAM, NEMO) to Earth system models (UKESM1). 

  • What do you do within BIOPOLE?   

I’m involved in two parts of WP3 of BIOPOLE. The first is focused on adding the process of diapause to the large zooplankton of MEDUSA, the marine biogeochemistry model that I lead development of at NOC. This process essentially allows zooplankton such as copepods to hibernate in relative safety away from the risky surface ocean. Because of this, it’s implicated in the transfer of carbon to the deep ocean, and we’d like to quantify just how important it is for this. That said, although I’m leading this work, it’s my NOC colleague – Julien Palmieri – who’s actually doing the hard work of coding and testing the diapause model that I’ve designed. Separately, and based in part on my experience with the UK’s Earth system model, UKESM1, I’m assisting with a separate WP3 modelling activity to understand nutrient import/export from the polar regions and the potential effects on productivity at lower latitudes. 

  • What have you enjoyed about BIOPOLE so far? 

It’s a cliché, but it’s mostly been about the people so far for me. Although there’s a lot of sloshing about in UK oceanography, and I have tended to bump into many people down the years, I’m finding myself working with new colleagues in BIOPOLE. Partly it’s down to the greater biological focus of my involvement with the project, but a big dollop of luck has been important too. And I’ve really enjoyed meeting and interacting with my new colleagues. Particularly around designing the diapause model that we’re building for BIOPOLE, we’ve really benefitted from having the team around us that the project has assembled. 

  • Tell us about a skill or trait unique to you that you would like to share? 

Largely for historical reasons, oceanography is a subject that draws people in from across the natural sciences – and, increasingly, from the social sciences too. As a result, there are a lot of unique people in the field in the UK today. All of which makes for a really enjoyably diverse group of people with wide-ranging experiences, skills and perspectives.  

Dr Andrew Yool from National Oceanography Centre 

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Meet the Team

Adrian Martin

  • Please introduce yourself.  

I am Dr Adrian Martin and I’m based in the Marine Systems Modelling group at National Oceanography Centre (NOC). 

  • Tell us about your professional and academic career before becoming part of the BIOPOLE Community. 

Like many in oceanography I have been environmentally recycled from another field. One of the great things about marine science is that it attracts so many different backgrounds. My background is more in physics and I benefitted from the open-mindedness of marine scientists who gave me a chance to apply my numerical skills to ocean ecology problems after my PhD and I’ve been at NOC ever since – longer than I choose to remember. Despite being originally being employed as a modeller and sitting in a modelling group, oceanography encourages multidisciplinarity and I was on my first cruise within the first year at NOC and have even been chief scientist on a cruise a couple of times now. 

  • What do you do within BIOPOLE?  

Within BIOPOLE I jointly lead WP3 with Andrew Meijers. This WP is focussed on the global impacts of changes at the poles.  I am also lead for the NOC involvement in BIOPOLE. As a result my role is largely managing – I don’t get to do the really exciting stuff – but it does give me a great vantage point to see how the many components of BIOPOLE are slotting together to produce something truly impressive. 

  • What have you enjoyed about BIOPOLE so far? 

A highlight so far has been the Arctic work. When writing the proposal for BIOPOLE we recognised the huge amount of activity and infrastructure already present in the Arctic and approached a number of groups to suggest collaborations. They were incredibly welcoming and helpful, providing access to cruises and facilities way beyond anything we could have afforded ourselves and welcoming us to the wider Arctic scientific community. In return I hope we are adding some great complementary science to their activities. Watching this generous and inclusive example of scientific collaboration across nations develop has been wonderful. 

Dr Adrian Martin from National Oceanography Centre 

ASM 2024 Participants
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BIOPOLE Annual Science Meeting 2024

The 2nd BIOPOLE Annual Science Meeting took place from the 6th to the 8th of March 2024 at the British Antarctic Survey in Cambridge and online. BIOPOLE Project Members, Early Career Researchers (ECRs), Members of the Programme Advisory Board (PAB), Science and Strategic Partners were invited to participate. Around 50 in-person and 13 virtual participants attended the hybrid BIOPOLE Annual Science Meeting.

The meeting spanned through three days and was filled with fruitful discussions, great scientific talks, exciting presentations, interesting keynotes and much more. All sessions were chaired by BIOPOLE Early Career Researchers (ECRs).

The first day kicked off with the project overview and work package presentations, where all four BIOPOLE work packages (WPs) (WP1 – Inputs, WP2 – Processes, WP3 – Impacts, WP4 – Management) presented the progress of work.

The poster session followed. After the poster session, quick-fire talks took place, after which we had a discussion.

The second day started with the ECRs’ breakfast. After the breakfast, Guang Yang delivered a keynote on ‘Zooplankton mediated carbon pumps’.

Next, we learned about the major BIOPOLE fieldwork efforts in Arctic (Arctic ships), Ny Alesund, and Southern Ocean (BIOPOLE Cruise I).

Presentations on data management, the Decade Collaborative Centre for the Southern Ocean Region (DCC-SOR), and Arctic policy were delivered, along with updates from the ECRs.

We then had four breakout sessions before lunch and four afterward. After the breakout session, Katrin Linse delivered a keynote on ‘Benthic elements of BIOPOLE’. We closed the day with the Executive Board and Programme Advisory Board meeting.

The third and the last day of the meeting started with the ECR-led session on the ‘Imposter syndrome: taming your inner critic’. Following that, we heard the rapporteurs’ reports from the breakout sessions and engaged in a discussion. Further, the PAB delivered an insightful report for the project. Before we concluded the meeting, we had a couple of discussion sessions on ‘Interaction with partners and within the project to achieve key BIOPOLE objectives in Arctic and Antarctic’ as well as ‘BIOPOLE into the future and lessons learned’.  

We would like to express our gratitude to every single individual for their work in BIOPOLE and for their participation in the meeting be it in-person or virtual.

Programme-BIOPOLE-Annual-Science-Meeting-2024-Cambridge-March-6-8Download

The author of the article – Ruta Hamilton (British Antarctic Survey)

Draft infographic illustrating the range of modelling and observational activities being undertaken through BIOPOLE.
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BIOPOLE Sets up Modelling-Observations Working Group

The Modelling-Observations Working Group (WG) was established following the first BIOPOLE annual meeting to enhance the links between the modelling work and observational campaigns. Regular meetings between modellers at NOC and BAS had been taking place since the start of the project to ensure a synergy in modelling effort across the institutes. However, there was a clear need for an equivalent forum for the exchange of ideas and information between modellers and observationalists in the BIOPOLE community, hence the Modelling-Observations WG was formed. The WG now involves 19 members from all four work packages with representatives from NOC, BAS, CEH, and Exeter University. Meetings of the full WG currently take place approximately every 6 months, with more focussed monthly meetings targeting specific work packages or work streams.

The main aims of the WG are as follows:

  • Identify links between modelling efforts and encourage collaboration.
  • Discuss data needs of modelling efforts and identify sources (databases or field campaigns).
  • Identify data gaps to inform targeted data collection and fieldwork planning.
  • Identify opportunities for integrating modelling efforts with observational data to inform interpretation of key processes.

Contributing to the last of these aims, collaborative work involving NOC modellers and biological oceanographers is ongoing to understand the processes involved in generating regions of de-oxygenation in the Chukchi Sea, which were identified in the recent Chukchi Sea cruise. Such regions may impact the regional ecosystem and dependent fisheries and it is important to understand the underlying physical and biogeochemical processes.

One of the key outputs of the WG so far has been the development of new BIOPOLE infographics that capture the range of modelling activities being undertaken and how they link to the observational campaigns. Drawing on Jen Freer’s creativity and mastery of PowerPoint, two draft designs have been developed; the first is targeted at a general audience (Figure 1) whilst the second provides a more detailed picture of the modelling work and is suitable for a more specialist audience. The draft designs may be found on the BIOPOLE shared drive in the Modelling-Observations WG directory, and we would welcome feedback from the BIOPOLE community. The intention is to produce infographics that broadly follow the design of the BIOPOLE concept graphic. The designs will be professionally produced and will be available for use in posters, talks, and other promotional activities.

Figure 1: Draft infographic illustrating the range of modelling and observational activities being undertaken through BIOPOLE.

The author of the article – Emma Young (British Antarctic Survey)

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Meet the Team

Stefanie Rynders

  • Please introduce yourself.

I’m a physical oceanographer working in the Marine Systems Modeling group at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton. I develop models, mainly of the Arctic Ocean across different components of the system. Projects I have worked on so far range from fundamental physics to practical applications and climate scales. BIOPOLE has got me more involved in biogeochemistry and the connection between land and ocean.

  • What do you do within BIOPOLE?

I am part of WP1 and WP3. In work package 1 we look at nutrient inputs and I have calculated nutrient inputs from coastal erosion specifically. We made a model based erosion rate estimate, which should serve both for the historical period and future projections. I also check our existing biogeochemistry models against observational data, including from the BIOPOLE cruises. This has already highlighted some areas where improvements can be made. For work package 3 I’ll be investigating the connectivity of nutrient fluxes from the Arctic into the North Atlantic. The North Atlantic is expected to become more stratified in the future, hindering access to nutrients. So, a nutrient boost from the Arctic could be good for the ecosystem and support future fisheries.

  • What have you enjoyed about BIOPOLE so far?

The best thing about BIOPOLE is that it is such a well-integrated project across the centres. It is fun to hear about other people’s research in completely different areas every month. I have learned a lot about hydrology just by joining the meetings, though the complexity of molecular analysis in the lab still blows my mind! We are working together with observationalists and modellers across the fields on climate variability and missing processes in our NOC model.

  • Tell us about a skill or trait unique to you that you would like to share?

I like swimming so I try to make use of the pool nearby NOC to go swimming over lunchtime with a colleague.

Stefanie Rynders from National Oceanography Centre

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BIOPOLE in the Western Arctic Ocean

Polar oceans export nutrients to the lower latitudes where this export flux can be an important regulator of lower latitude productivity.  In the Arctic Ocean careful analysis of nutrient inputs and outputs suggests that the Arctic is a net exporter of phosphorous and silicate to the North Atlantic but intriguingly not nitrogen with nitrogen inputs to, and outputs from, the Arctic seemingly balanced. The result is a characteristic change to the nitrogen to phosphorous (N:P) ratio found in seawater which gradually increases as ocean waters flow from the Pacific through the Arctic and eventually out into the Atlantic Ocean. Despite considerable uncertainties and limitations of existing datasets nitrogen loss processes occurring in the Western Arctic, particularly within the sediments of the shallow Bering and Chukchi Seas, are known to contribute to the removal of nitrogen and enrichment of phosphorous reported in seawater nutrient measurements. However, the magnitude of this sedimentary nitrogen removal process is insufficient to account for the observed shift in seawater N:P ratios, with several competing explanations presented in the literature as to why this may be. One interesting possibility, and a target of BIOPOLE Work Package 2 (WP2) activities in the western Arctic, is the presence of an additional nitrogen sink operating within the water column.

To address this possibility BIOPOLE WP2 was tasked with measuring bacterial denitrification rates, collecting eDNA/eRNA samples to probe the makeup and function of bacterial communities present in seawater, and to deploy an automated water sampler to collect an annual cycle of seawater nutrient concentrations in water flowing across the remote and seasonally icebound northern Chukchi Shelf. These activities will contribute to wider programme efforts investigating how ecosystem processes can change elemental balances in the northern polar region and to project Milestones i and ii (new observations in polar environments and obtainment of seasonal measurements via autonomous technologies).

Access to the Western Arctic (from the UK at least) is non-trivial but through the supporting efforts of project partners based at the University of Maryland and the University of Alaska, Fairbanks, a single berth was secured on the 2023 autumn Arctic ecosystem survey aboard the R.V. Sikuliaq, an ice-class research vessel operated by the University of Alaska, Fairbanks. Demand for berths was high and the cruise itself was a consortium effort supporting NOAA’s EcoFOCI program (Ecosystems and Fisheries Oceanography) and the NOAA Marine Mammal Lab,  the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) programme run from the University of Maryland (project partner), and the Arctic Marine Biodiversity Observation Network (AMBON) and Chukchi Ecosystem Observatory (CEO) projects both run from the University of Alaska Fairbanks (project partner).

The result was an enjoyable cruise with diverse scientific activities ranging from benthic trawls, benthic landers, water sampling, mooring recoveries/deployments, sea-bird and marine mammal observations, and detailed chemical and physical observations across this key Arctic region. Results from BIOPOLE activities will be made available in due course once samples have returned to the UK and have been analysed, but which is expected to be within 6-12 months.

Map of the survey region and sampling locations


Stuart Painter from the National Oceanography Centre 

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Meet the Team

Enma Elena García-Martín

I’m a biogeochemist working within the Ocean BioGeoscience group at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton. During the last decade I’ve been investigating the role of phytoplankton, zooplankton and bacteria on the marine carbon cycling, the coupling between oxygen production (primary production) and consumption (plankton respiration) processes and the influence of the community structure and environmental variables, such as temperature and dissolved organic matter, on the plankton metabolism. In BIOPOLE I wear two different hats:

a) I am part of the WP2 which focusses on the biological processes that modify the carbon to nutrient ratios in polar environments. Specifically, I run laboratory experiments with different cultured phytoplankton to determine the direct and indirect effects of warming and nutrient supply on microplankton cell size, metabolism (primary production and respiration) and biomass stoichiometry. Our results will allow to understand better the responses of polar phytoplankton to changing climatic conditions.

b) I am also the Strategic Lead for Arctic Fieldwork, and when I wear this hat, I serve as a point of contact between BIOPOLE researchers and BIOPOLE project partners, facilitating the interactions between them and coordinating the activities, to ensure that BIOPOLE maximize the resources available in the Arctic.

I was lucky to live a year in Tromsø (Norway) many many years ago, where I spent hours looking at polar plankton under the microscope. BIOPOLE has given me the opportunity to spend more time with these cold, beautiful creatures without the need of woolly hat and gloves. 

I have green fingers, not only for phytoplankton, and I like growing my own veggies. Ohh, I love how tasty they are!!!


Enma Elena García-Martín from the National Oceanography Centre

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BIOPOLE Kick-Off Meeting

The Kick-Off meeting for BIOPOLE was held on the 27th – 28th April 2022, hosted by the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton.

We had a really productive hybrid meeting, with 54 project members and Programme Advisory Board members getting the chance to meet each other and build collaborations, but also allowing productive involvement to those who couldn’t attend in person. The meeting consisted of plenary presentations and breakout sessions for the work packages, and groups such as the Executive Board and the Early Career Members.